Solurana InsightsInitiating coverage: the CFA® Level I exam
Pass rates have stabilized above their decade trend. What is scarce is study method, not hours.
Our call
Stance: stable and modestly above-trend, with recent windows in the low-to-mid 40s against a ~41% ten-year average.
Next print: May 2026 results (expected late July 2026). We estimate 43–45% and will mark this to actual when CFA Institute reports.
For candidates: with no published passing score and rates in the low-40s, the edge comes from disciplined, targeted preparation rather than more hours.
Estimates & variance — Level I pass rate
| Window | Pass rate | vs 10-yr avg (~41%) |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2026 (A) | 45% | +4 pts |
| Nov 2025 (A) | 43% | +2 pts |
| Aug 2025 (A) | 43% | +2 pts |
| May 2025 (A) | 45% | +4 pts |
| May 2026 (E) | 43–45% | +2 to +4 pts |
(A) actual, reported by CFA Institute in its per-window results announcements. (E) Solurana's estimate, before the results are released.
What's driving the view
- Post-CBT normalization: rates fell to a record low near 22% in mid-2021; the deferred-candidate backlog has cleared and rates reverted toward the long-run mean.
- Curriculum stability: 2026 topic weights are unchanged from 2025 — no structural shock to difficulty.
Risks to the view
- Single-window volatility: any one sitting can swing several points on candidate mix, so we anchor on the trend rather than a single print.
- 2027 curriculum refresh: a heavier change could pressure first-pass rates as materials and candidates adjust.
The thesis for candidates
A 43–45% pass rate is not a lottery; it rewards candidates who convert study hours into retained, test-ready knowledge. Rates have held near trend even as the curriculum and candidate mix have shifted, which suggests the binding constraint is retention rather than access to material. With the passing score unpublished, the safe target is consistently 70%+ on fresh full-length mocks — a level Solurana is built to drill against.
See where you stand — free diagnostic See the pass-rate data →
Sources. Pass rates from CFAI results announcements; estimates are Solurana's own, anchored to the recent trend. Companion: the tracker and Difficulty Index. For education only.